|
Staines
faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of
new housing isn’t keeping up. And indeed, the population of Staines
is growing at a fairly alarming rate. This is due to a combination of
longer life expectancy, a high birth rate (compared to previous
decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing
shortages and burgeoning house prices.
On
the longer life expectancy, did you know that the average age of a
Staines’ite (is there such a word?) is 40.4 years? This compares to
the South East average of 40.0 years old and the national average of
39.4 years of age.
Durham
University, known as the UK’s leading authority for population
statistics have produced statistics looking specifically at each
Borough Council area. Their population projections make startling
reading…
For
the Spelthorne Borough Council area ... these are the statistics and
future forecasts:
2016 population 99,747
2021 population 104,207
2026 population 108,490
2031 population 112,464
2036 population 116,252
|
|
|
|
|
|
The
normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which
therefore means...
We
need just over 8,000 additional new properties to be built
in
the Spelthorne Borough Council area over the next 20 years.
Whilst
focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in
the short term in Staines, it has a fundamental role to play in
long-term housing development and strategy of the town and the
surrounding areas. The rise of Staines property values over the last
six years since the credit crunch is primarily the result
of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of
new properties being built and rising demand (especially from
landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing
number of people wanting to live in Staines but can’t buy or rent
from the Council).
Although
many people are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the
building of new properties), the issue of cumulative demand from
population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of
25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from
66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their
own home. Longer life expectancies mean houses remain in the same
hands for longer.
It
might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is
either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent
being used for housing. So whilst one could propose expanding supply
to meet the expanding population by building on green belt, most
politicians haven’t got the stomach to tackle the problem in that way,
especially in the Tory strongholds of the South of England, where
demand is greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent
research suggests there aren’t that many brownfield sites to
build on; certainly there aren’t enough in Staines to accommodate
8,000 properties in the next 20 years.
In
the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will
continue to grow in Staines (and the country as a whole). In the
short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental
sector, which of course is good news for homeowners and landlords
alike as it will maintain rising house prices.
In
the long term though, local and national Government and the UK
population as a whole need to realise that these additional tens of
thousands of people (millions nationally, of course) need to live
somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms of
extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally
friendly way, can we all help create a prosperous and comfortable
future for everyone.
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment