Staines Grey Generation sitting on £1.53bn of Property

Staines residents aged over 65 currently hold more housing wealth in their homes than the annual GDP of the whole of the Isle of Anglesey … and that is a problem for everyone in Staines!

Many retirees want to move but can’t, as there is a shortage of such homes for mature people to downsize into.  Due to the shortage, bungalows command a 10% to 20% premium per square foot over houses of the same size with stairs. To add to the woes, in 2014, just 1% of new builds in the UK were bungalows, according to the National House Building Council - down from 7% in 1996.

My research has found that there are 3,456 households in Staines owned outright (i.e. no mortgage) by over 65 year olds.  Taking into account the average value of a property in Staines, this means £1.53 billion of equity is locked up in these Staines homes, compared to the GDP of the whole of the Isle of Anglesey being £797 million of GDP.

A recent survey by YouGov, found that 36% of people aged over 65 in the UK are looking to downsize into a smaller home.  However, the Government seems to focus all its attention on first-time buyers with strategies such as Starter Homes to ensure the youngsters of the UK don’t become permanent members of ‘Generation Rent’.  This overlooks the chronic under-supply of appropriate retirement housing essential to the needs of the Staines’ rapidly ageing population. Regrettably  Staines’ housing stock is woefully unprepared for this demographic shift to the 'stretched middle age’ and this has created a new 'Generation Trapped’ dilemma where older people cannot move.

Some OAPs who are finding it difficult to live on their own, are unable to leave their bungalow because of a lack of sheltered housing and ‘affordable’ care home places.  So, older retirees can't leave bungalows, younger retirees can't buy bungalows and younger people can't buy family houses.

Interestingly, adding insult to injury, the problem will only get worse, as in the 50 year old to 64 year old homeownership age range there are an additional 2,033 Staines households that are mortgage free and a further 2,017 Staines households who will soon be completing their mortgage responsibility.  With Government projections showing the proportion of over 65s will rise by over a third from the current 17.7% to 24.3% of the population in the next 20 years ... this can only add greater pressure to the Staines Property market.

House prices have rocketed over the last 40 years because the supply of property has not kept up with demand. With migration, people living longer and high divorce rates (meaning one family becomes two) we need, as a country, 240,000 properties to be built a year to just stand still.  In the 1990’s and early 2000’s, the Country was building on average 180,000 to 190,000 households a year, but since the Credit Crunch (2009), that has dropped to between 130,000 and 145,000 households a year.

The solution …. release more land for starter homes, bungalows and sheltered accommodation because land prices are killing the housing market as the large firms dominating the construction industry are more likely to focus on traditional houses and apartments.  My opinion – until the Government change the planning rules and allow more land to be built on – bungalows could be a decent bet for future investment as they continue to attract ever growing premiums.  

STAINES DEAL OF THE WEEK - 24th  JANUARY 2017

OPEN  HOUSE

At just £270,000 this two bed maisonette is definitely worth a look.  Actually this one is on with Martin & Co, my agency, but as you know if you view these deals regularly, that is not the reason for putting it up as the deal of the week.

It's a great price, in a very sought after road in Staines - perfect as a Buy To Let investment or a first home.

Call us now to register interest - Open House on Saturday 4th Feb, by appointment only, please.

Follow this link for more details:

https://www.martinco.com/property/for-sale/288867 

Staines Property Market sees an unpredicted  Boost of 101%

Photo:  Mario Sánchez Prada

It doesn’t seem like two minutes ago that it was Christmas – and already it feels like a distant memory!  One cold December morning, after arranging the office’s Christmas cards I thought I would nip out for a quick festive coffee and mince pie at my favourite local coffee shop Caffe Ricco.  I bumped into an old client of mine in the coffee shop and we got talking about the Staines property market.

He asked me what my thoughts were about the last half of the year with regards to the Staines property market and if there were any great buy to let deals around. In reply I said that, in my view, shrugging off the uncertainty of the initial post Brexit vote, I had seen an increase in supply and a rise in the number of properties selling at the lower to middle end of the market, meaning both first time buyers and buy to let landlords have been returning in the last few months – proof the market is beginning to bounce back.

So let’s look at the numbers ..

In November 2016, according to the three main property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket) there were a total of 155 properties for sale in Staines (within 1 mile of the centre of Staines to be exact). In November 2015, there were only 77 properties for sale, a rise of 101%.

When I split it down into bedrooms (note:  building plots and part commercial/part residential etc. won’t be in these figures so the numbers below won’t exactly match those in the paragraph above).

	# Properties on the market in Nov 2015	# Properties on the market in Nov 2016	Per cent Change
5+ Bedrooms	7	11	+57%
4 Bedrooms	29	33	+14%
3 Bedrooms	16	52	+225%
2 Bedrooms	18	49	+172%
1 Bedroom	6	9	+50%

.. and when I looked at type of properties  .. it got even more interesting

Type of Property	# Properties on the market in Nov 2015	# Properties on the market in Nov 2016	Per cent Change
Detached	27	38	+41%
Semi	24	47	+96%
Terraced	5	25	+400%
Flat	17	40	+135%

As the number of Staines properties put up for sale has soared by 101%, homeowners have become more realistic about how much their homes are worth. This increase in homeowners wanting to sell suggests there is renewed confidence in the Staines property market and there are also signs that people are being more realistic about pricing their .property.

As you can see, there has been a significant uplift in flats and terraced properties, which means there is greater choice for first time buyers and landlords. So with a combination of realistic pricing and more properties on the market – both first time buyers and landlords alike might be able to pick up a few bargains!  

Staines property price rises set to be more restrained in 2017

While Brexit has not yet had a sizeable impact on the Staines housing market, the economic viewpoint remains uncertain and we feel that Staines property price growth is likely to be more subdued in 2017 -  that isn’t altogether a bad thing however,  let me explain.

Since the summer, apart from a little wobble of uncertainty a few weeks after the Referendum vote, property values (and the economy), on the whole has outperformed what most people were anticipating. In fact, when I looked at the property prices for our Spelthorne Borough Council area, these were the results...

October 2016                 - rise of 1.38%

September 2016             - drop of 1.25%

August 2016                   - rise of 1.14%

July 2016                        - rise of 0.58%

June 2016                       - rise of 1.9%

expressed as a graph...

The UK property market continues to perform robustly (because we can’t just look at Staines as if in its own little bubble) with national annual price growth set to end 2016 at 6.91% and the South East region property market at 9.1%.

Talking to fellow agents in London, the significant tidal wave of growth seen from 2013 through to 2015 in the capital has subdued over the last six months. However, as that central London house price wave has started to ripple out, agents are starting to see stronger property growth values in East Anglia and the South East regions outside of London, than what is being seen within the M25. So, fellow Staines landlords and homeowners, is this the time to get your surfboards ready for the London wave?

We in Staines haven’t really been affected by what is happening in the central London property mega bubble (i.e. Kensington, Chelsea, Marylebone, Mayfair etc.). However just like everywhere else, the property market locally is more driven by sentiment, especially the ‘C’ word ... confidence. The main forces for a weaker Staines Property market relate to economic uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, which I believe will impact unhelpfully on consumer confidence in the run up to and just after the triggering of Article 50 by the end of March 2017.

In addition, the influence of reforms to the taxation of landlords is expected to result in a reduced demand from buy to let landlords, which will limit upward pressure on property values. However, on the other side of the coin, demand from tenants has been strong, but this has been counterbalanced by a strong supply of rental properties. In my opinion, there is a slight risk of rents not growing as much in 2017 as they have in 2016, but by 2018 they will rise again to counteract Philip Hammond’s changes to tenant fees.

The broader Staines rental market continues to look positive with modest rental growth expected; rents might rise further if landlords begin to sell properties in an effort to offset to the impact of tax rises.

So what do I predict will happen to the Staines housing market in 2017? In Staines,  prices are expected to fall by 2.3% in 2017 compared to a rise of 10.7% in 2016, then pick up to growth of 1.9% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019, then 4.2% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021.

These predictions do not take into account the effect of a possible snap General Election or further referendum on ratifying any Brexit deal (if that were ever to come to pass).

Staines Deal of the Week - January 2017

This three bed property is in need of extensive refurbishment, but a steal at £295,000. On for sale with Purple Bricks, it will either make a spacious family home or a great investment property, close to all the main commuter roads and Heathrow airport. Listed on 3rd January, I'm sure it won't be around for long. 

  

Further details at:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46174947.html   

Happy New Year, all my Staines' Property Blog Readers.  

I hope you all had a wonderful time with your friends and family over Christmas and have come back to daily life refreshed, re-invigorated and ready to fulfil all those New Years' resolutions.  Mine is to continue to post on a regular basis about the Staines' property market, but to increase interest in the blog by REGULARLY posting a deal of the week.  Let's face it, none of us can resist a good deal.  It won't necessarily be a property on the market with us, but one we think is worth looking at. 

 Let's see if I can keep to that this year.

Have a good one.