4.3 Babies Born for Each New Home

built in the Staines area

 

 
As more babies are being born to Staines and Spelthorne mothers, we see yet another  factor adding pressure to the over stretched Staines property market.  

On the back of eight years of ever increasing birth rates, a significant 4.3 babies were born for every new home that was built in the Spelthorne council area in 2016.  I believe this has and will continue to exacerbate the Staines housing shortage, meaning demand for housing, be it to buy or rent, will remain high. Whilst we are currently seeing rents plateau and even drop slightly in Staines and sales prices are staying rather flat, I do believe that  the high birth rate  is future proofing property investment for landlords, investors and owners alike, despite the many and varied challenges the economy has and is continuing to experience!  

This ratio of births to new homes has reach one of its highest levels since 1945 (back in the early 1970’s the average was only one and a half births for every household built).  Looking at the local birth rates, the latest figures show that we in the Spelthorne council area had an average of 70 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.  Interestingly, the national average is 61.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.  

 

The number of births from Staines and Spelthorne women between the ages of 20 to 29 are close to the national average, whilst those between 35 and 44 were higher.  However overall, the birth rate is still increasing, and when that fact is combined with the ever-increasing life expectancy in the Staines area, the high levels of net migration into the area and the higher predominance of single person households … this can only mean one thing ... a continuing increase in the need for housing in Staines.

Again, in a previous article a while back, I commented that more and more people are having children as tenants because they feel safe in rented accommodation.  Renting is becoming a choice for Staines inhabitants.

The planners and politicians in our local authority and central Government need to recognise that with individuals living longer, people having more children and whilst divorce rates have dropped recently, they are still at a relatively high level (meaning one household becomes two households) ... demand for property is still outstripping supply.

 

The simple fact is more Staines properties need to be built

… be that for buying or renting.

 

Only 1.1% of the country is occupied by houses.  Now I am not suggesting we build tower blocks in the middle of the Cotswolds, but the obsession of not building on any green belt land should be carefully re-considered.

Yes, we need to build on brownfield sites first, but there aren’t hundreds of acres of brownfield sites in Staines.  

I am not saying we should crudely tarmac over our entire Green Belt, but we do need a new approach to enable some parts of the countryside to be regarded more positively by local authorities, politicians and communities and allow considered and empathetic development. Society in the UK needs to look at the green belts outside their leisure and visual appeal, and assess how they can help to shape the way we live in the most even-handed way.  Interesting times for the new Housing Minister!

Staines Rents - A rise of 22.6% since 2005 - Sounds good, but is it really?

 

The income from rentals has been progressively increasing over the last 12 years. Today, they are 22.6% higher than they were at the beginning of 2005. In fact, over the last five years, the average growth has been 2.4% per annum. From a landlord’s point of view, increase in average rental income is always welcome. However, the observant readers  amongst you will quickly note that we are ignoring an important factor – inflation.

But how do we work out how we are actually doing? Inflation since 2005 has been 38.5%, rent rises have been 22.5% in Staines.   In real terms,  when we compare rents in Staines to inflation since 2005, then we are 15.9% worse off than we were in 2005.

Of course, rental income is not the only way to generate money from property as property values can increase. Although in the short term, cash flow is being squeezed, many Staines landlords may be content to accept that for the very significant increase they are seeing  in capital value.
 

Property values in Staines have risen by 70.8% since 2005

 

 

 

This equates to a very decent 5.9% per annum increase over the last 12 years. Even more decent, when you factor in that this includes the 2008/9 property crash;  that makes us Staines landlords and investors feel so much better about the information regarding rent increases after inflation.

 

And of course, the point I always come back to , when I am talking about property, where else will you get those returns? 

It would be true to say, my rental income verses property prices study does lead to some interesting thoughts. I am often asked to look at my landlord’s rental portfolios, to ascertain the spread of their investment across their multiple properties. It’s all about judging whether what you have will meet your needs of the investment in the future. It’s the balance of capital growth and yield whilst diversifying this risk.

If you are investing in the Staines property market, do your homework and do it well. While some yields may look attractive, there are properties in many areas that do not have the solid rudiments in place to sustain them. If you are looking for capital growth, you might be surprised where the hidden gems really are. Take advice, even ask your agent for a portfolio analysis like I offer my landlords.  However, if they can’t help – well, you know where I am, the kettle is always on!

 

 

Staines Flats Outperform Staines Property Market Average by 32%

 

According to the Land Registry's latest House Price Index for Staines and the surrounding locality, the value of apartments/flats is rising at a faster rate than terraced/town houses, semi-detached properties and even detached property.

Values of apartments in Staines have increased by 5.18% over the past year, which is proportionally 32% more than the Staines average rise of 3.91%. The last time flats/apartments in Staines outperformed all the other types of property, by such a significant difference, was back in the autumn of 2003. For comparison, the other property types performed as follows ..

·         Detached homes rose by 3.68%

·         Semi-detached homes rose by 3.36%

·         Terraced/Town-Houses rose by 3.23%

This moderately increasing rate of property value growth is nice to see – but no one should confuse it with a strong and vigorous healthy Staines property market. Instead, it is somewhat an indicator of the long-lasting lack of property on the market. In fact, I have spoken about the lack of homes for sale in Staines on a number of occasions in my Staines Property Blog and whilst it isn’t as bad as it was 12 months ago – choice is quite limited for buyers.

 

The average property value in Staines now stands at £430,300

 

When split down into property types :

 

·         Staines Apartments at £273,400

·         Staines Detached at £701,800

·         Staines Semi-Detached at £427,600

·         Staines Terraced/Town-House at £366,200

 

So why have Staines apartments performed so well, and is it just a Staines thing? When I scrutinised the figures for the rest of the UK, it appears that apartments are pacemakers in the clear majority of the country. Of the 379 local authority areas in the UK, the value of apartments is rising faster than detached, semi-detached and terraced houses in 320 of them.

 

So, should Staines apartment owners be getting out the champagne? Well, I would keep it on ice as the Land Registry figures are notorious for short term fluctuations. It’s hard to have faith in the fact that Staines house values rose rapidly last month given that, in the last six months, the Land Registry has frequently made downward revisions to their first published House Price Index figures.

 

Thankfully, the bigger picture from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) stated that home buying activity in April was up 2% over the same month in 2016 – not bad really. The CML stated first time buyer’s levels of affordability was being squeezed and that the average amount borrowed by those first-time buyers dropped slightly in April, but the overall amount borrowed (by all buyers) was an impressive 12% higher than the same month in 2016.

So, what next for the Staines Property market? I believe the uplift in the values of apartments is a short-term blip. The real issue is that wage growth might not keep up with inflation as the effects of 2016 exchange rate sucks in inflation (meaning real wage growth stagnates). This will mean buyer demand growth will be curtailed and with property values already so high, I firmly believe a renewed increase in house price growth is unlikely.

I do think we are starting to return to the housing market we saw in the mid 1990’s:  steady demand, steady supply – nothing silly when it comes to house price growth.  No bad thing, in my view.

DEAL OF THE WEEK - EGHAM

12 6 17

 

SPACIOUS, THREE BED SEMI  for only £385,000.   This wont be around for long, so get in touch with the sales agent quickly.  On top of the three beds, it has a conservatory, a loft room and a decent sized garden.

 On with YourMove, see more details at :  http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-60257392.html

What will the General Election do to the 7,905 Staines Homeowners?

 

 

In Staines, of the 11, 039 households, 7905 are owner occupied; of these 3,882 homes are owned without a mortgage and 4,023 homes are owned with a mortgage (the difference are either council houses, Housing Association or privately rented). Many homeowners have made contact me with asking what the General Election will do the Staines property market?  The best way to predict the future is to look at the past.

I have looked over the last five General Elections and analysed in detail what happened to the property market in the lead up to and after the General Election. Some very interesting information has come to light.

Of the last five general elections (1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the two elections that weren’t certain were the last two (2010 with the coalition and 2015 with unexpected Tory majority). Therefore, I wanted to compare what happened in 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Tony Blair was guaranteed to be elected /re-elected verses the last knife edge uncertain votes of 2010 and 2015,  in terms of the number of houses sold and the prices achieved.

Look at the first graph below comparing the number of properties sold and the dates of the General Elections

 

 

It is clear, looking at the number of monthly transactions (the blue line), there is a certain rhythm or seasonality to the housing market. That rhythm / seasonality has never changed since 1995 (Seasonality meaning the periodic fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season -  i.e. you can see how the number of properties sold dips around Christmas, rises in Spring and Summer and drops again at the end of the year).

To remove that seasonality, I have introduced the red line. The red line is a 12 month ‘moving average’ trend line which enables us to look at the ‘de-seasonalised’ housing transaction numbers, whilst the yellow arrows denote the times of the General Elections. It is clear to see that after the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections, there was significant uplift in number of households sold, whilst in 2010 and 2015, there was slight drop in house transactions (ie number of properties sold).

Next, I wanted to consider what happened to property prices. In the graph below, I have used that same 12 month average, housing transactions numbers (in red) and yellow arrows for the dates of the General Elections but this time compared that to what happened to property values (pink line).

 

It is quite clear that none of the General Elections had any effect on the property values.  Also, the timescales between the calling of the election and the date itself also means that any property buyer’s indecisiveness and indecision before the election will have less of an impact on the market.

So finally, what does this mean for the landlords of the 1,658 private rented properties in Staines? Well, as I have discussed in previous articles (and just as relevant for homeowners as well) property value growth in Staines will be more subdued in the coming few years for reasons other than the General Election. The growth of rents has taken a slight hit in the last few months as there has been a slight over supply of rental property in Staines, making it imperative that Staines landlords are realistic with their market rents. But in the long term as the younger generation still choose to rent rather than buy,  the prospects, even with the changes in taxation, mean investing in buy to let still looks a good bet.

 

 

 

Flipping’ Heck - Sunny Staines' Property Values Rise by £63.56 a day

 

 

Investing in Staines buy to let property is different from investing in the stock market or depositing your hard-earned cash in the Building Society. When you invest your money in the Building Society, this is considered by many as the safe option but the returns you can achieve are awfully low (the best 2-year bond rate from Nationwide is a whopping 0.75% a year!). Another investment is the Stock Market, which can give good returns, but unless you are on the phone every day to your Stockbroker, most people invest in stock market funds, making the investment quite hands off and one always has the feeling of not being in control.

However, with buy to let, things can be more hands on. One of the things many landlords like is the tactile nature of property - the fact that you can touch the bricks and mortar. It is this factor that attracts many of Staines’s landlords – they are making their own decisions rather than entrusting them to city whizz kids in Canary Wharf playing roulette with their savings.

I always say investing in property is a long-term game. When you invest in the property market, you can earn from your investment in two ways. When a property increases in value over time, it is known as 'capital growth'. Capital growth, also known as capital appreciation, has been strong in recent times in Staines, but the value of property does go up as well as down just like shares do but the initial purchase price rarely decreases.  Rental income is what the tenant pays you - hopefully this will also grow over time. If you divide the annual rent into the value (or purchase price) of the property, this is your yield, or annual return. So, over the last 5 years, an average Staines property has risen by £116,000 (equivalent to £63.56 a day), taking it to a current average value of £431,400. Yields range from 3% a year and can reach double digits’ percentages (although to achieve those sorts of returns, the risks are higher).

However, something I haven’t spoken of before is the more specialist area of flipping property to make money. (flipping - buying a property, carrying out some minor cosmetics and re selling it quickly).  I have seen several investors recently who have made decent returns from this strategy. For example …

·         One Staines Investor paid £359,950 for a 3 bed end terrace on Broadacre in June 2015. It appears some cosmetic work was done to the property and it was resold a few months ago (October 2016) for £415,500 … 15.43% return before costs (or compound annual return equivalent of 11.21% AER) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=55062529&sale=4698124&country=england

 

 

 

This demonstrates how the Staines property market has not only provided very strong returns for the average investor over the last five years but how it has permitted a group of motivated buy to let Staines landlords and investors to become particularly wealthy.

As my article mentioned a few weeks ago, more and more Staines people may be giving up on owning their own home and are instead accepting long term renting whilst buy to let lending continues to grow from strength to strength.

 

Nearly 3 million People use Staines Train Station a Year -

 

How does that affect the Staines Property Market?

 

 

 

It might surprise you to know that it isn’t always the poshest villages around Staines or the swankiest Staines streets where properties sell and let the quickest. Quite often, it’s the ones that have the best transport links. There is a reason why one of the most popular property programmes on television is called Location, Location, Location!

 

 As an agent in Staines, I am frequently confronted with queries about the Staines property market, and most days I am asked, “What is the best part of Staines and its villages to buy in these days?”, chiefly from newcomers.  Now the answer is different for each person – a lot depends on the demographics of their family, their age, schooling requirements and interests etc. Nonetheless, one of the principal necessities for most tenants and buyers is ease of access to transport links, including public transport – of which the railways are very important.

 

Official figures recently released state that, in total, 3,815 people jump on a train each and every day from Staines Train station. Of those, 1,889 are season ticket holders. That’s a lot of money being spent when a season ticket, standard class, to London is £3,240 a year.

 

So, if up to £6.12m is being spent on rail season tickets each year from Staines, those commuters must have some impressive jobs and incomes to allow them to afford that season ticket in the first place. That means demand for middle to upper market properties remains strong in Staines and the surrounding area and so, in turn, these are the type of people whom are happy to invest in the Staines buy to let market – providing homes for the tenants of Staines…

 

 

The bottom line is that property values in Staines would be much lower if it wasn’t for the proximity of the railway station

 

And this isn’t just a passing phase. Rail is becoming increasingly important as the costs associated with car travel continue to rise and roads are becoming more and more congested. This has resulted in a huge surge in rail travel.  

 

Overall usage of the station at Staines has increased over the last 20 years. In 1997, a total of 1,391,802 people went through the barriers or connected with another train at the station in that 12-month period. However, in 2016, that figure had risen to 2,777,174 people using the station (that’s 7,630 people a day).

 

The juxtaposition of the property and the train station has an important effect on the value and saleability of a Staines property. It is also significant for tenants - so if you are a Staines buy to let investor looking for a property - the distance to and from the railway station can be extremely significant.

 

One of the first things house buyers and tenants do when surfing the web for somewhere to live is find out the proximity of a property to the train station. That is why Rightmove displays the distance to the railway station alongside each and every property on their website. 

 

Average House Price in England and Wales Exceeds £300,000 for the First Time

The average property in England and Wales has reached £300,000 for the first time despite the slowing in house price growth.

The rate of house price growth might have fallen since the Brexit decision was made, but that has not stopped the price of an average property in England and Wales  reaching £300,000 for the first time.

According to the latest property price index, house prices grew by 3.1 percent across England and Wales last year. That is less than half of the 7.3 percent annual price growth in 2015, but was still enough to push the average cost of a home to £300,169. 

Rates of house price growth 
In London, prices rose by just 1.3 percent over the course of the year, pushing prices to an average of £598,001. The fact that there was any rise in prices in London at all is down to the growth in more affordable areas of the capital, as opposed to central London,  where prices actually fell. 

In Barking and Dagenham, prices jumped by a significant 13.6 percent over the course of the year. This pushed the price of the average property in the borough to £301,572. However, despite the rise, houses are still more affordable than they are in the rest of the city.

Waltham Forest and Redbridge were the two other London boroughs to see the highest rate of house price growth. Prices rose by 11.3 percent in Waltham Forest, to £456,987; and by 10.8 percent in Redbridge, to £449,683.

House price falls
However, the picture in the capital was mixed, with the central neighbourhoods experiencing house price falls across the board. Central London’s property market has been rocked by the stamp duty hikes on homes worth more than £1million. While Brexit has been the catalyst for price reductions in some cases, it is the stamp duty charges that have really dampened demand for the most expensive homes.

In Chelsea, house prices fell by as much 13 percent year-on-year as vendors were forced to drop prices due to higher transaction taxes. Other areas with high-end homes and sky-high prices to suffer included Kensington and Notting Hill, where prices fell by 12 percent and 10 percent respectively. Overall, prime central London house prices fell by 6.7 percent year-on-year, with houses priced between £5million and £10million experiencing the biggest drop.
  
A confident start to the year
All in all, the housing market has made an excellent start to the year. Although house prices have not been rising in central London, other areas are flourishing. That includes the East of England, where prices have risen by 7.1 percent year-on-year, and the London commuter belt, where prices in counties like Surrey, Hampshire and Oxfordshire are all showing good growth.

Most importantly, despite the many doom-mongers and doubters, the performance in January shows the housing market’s resilience looks set to continue, and this confident start to the year is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of 2017. 

A helping hand to get on the property ladder
If you’re ready to climb the first rung of the property ladder, an average house price of £300,000 can seem daunting. However,there are plenty of affordable options out there to fit your budget and meet your needs. Keep reading our blog for Deals of the Week, or pop into our office at 137 High Street for a chat. 

SUNBURY DEAL OF THE WEEK

20 3 17

LOW LEASE, CASH BUYERS ONLY. This stunning two bedroom apartment is in an excellent location for commuting to London and offers fantastic value for money and strong yields! Presented in immaculate condition throughout following an extensive renovation.


On the market with Regents, Sunbury this is an amazing opportunity for an investor with cash.  See more details at  http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65193671.html.

STAINES' DEAL OF THE WEEK - 13th MARCH 2017

At a guide price of just £295,000 this property is a MUST SEE, potentially even a MUST BUY!

It's for sale by Auction on March 30th 2017 with Allsop in London, for more details:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-65158775.html. 

Currently arranged as a retail unit, offices and storage, it has planning permission to convert the upper parts to provide two 2 bedroom flats and the rear to provide one bedroom flat. It is right slap bang in the middle of Staines and a stone's throw from the River Thames.  

‘Generation Rent (Forever)’ – 1,453 Staines Tenants have no intention of ever buying a property to call home

The good old days of the 1970’s and 1980’s eh … with such highlights lowlights as 24% inflation, 17% interest rates, 3 day working week, 13% unemployment, power cuts ... those were the days (not)… but at least people could afford to buy their own home. So why aren’t the 20 and 30 something’s buying in the same numbers as they were 30 or 40 years ago?

Many people blame the credit crunch and global recession of 2008, which had an enormous impact on the Staines (and the UK) housing market. Predominantly, the 20 something first-time buyers who, confronting a problematic mortgage market, the perceived need for big deposits, reduced job security and declining disposable income, found it challenging to assemble the monetary means to get on to the Staines property ladder.

However, I would say there has been something else at play other than the issue of raising a deposit - having sufficient income and rising property prices in Staines. Whilst these are important factors and barriers to homeownership, I also believe there has been a generational change in attitudes towards home ownership in Staines (and in fact the rest of the country).

Back in 2011, the Halifax did a survey of thousands of tenants and 19% of tenants said they had no plans to buy a home for themselves. A recent, almost identical survey of tenants, carried out by The Deposit Protection Service (DPS) revealed, in late 2016, that figure had risen to 38.4%, with many no-longer equating home ownership to success and believing renting to be better suited to their lifestyle.

You see, I believe renting is a now fundamental part of the housing sector, and a meaningful proportion of the younger adult members of the Staines population choose to be tenants as it better suits their plans and lifestyle. Local Government in Staines (including the planners – especially the planners), land owners and landlords need an adaptable Staines residential property sector that allows the diverse choices of these Staines 20 and 30 year olds to be met.

This means, if we applied the same percentages to the current 3,783 Staines tenants in their 1,658 private rental properties, 1,453 tenants have no plans to ever buy a property – good news for the landlords of the 637 properties which those tenants inhabit. Interestingly, in the same report, just under two thirds (62%) of tenants said they didn’t expect to buy within the next year.

.. but does that mean the other third will be buying in Staines in the next 12 months?

Some will, but most won’t … in fact, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicts that, by 2025, that the number of people renting will increase, not drop. Yes, many tenants might hope to buy but the reality is different for the reasons set out above.  The RICS predicts the number of tenants looking to rent will increase by 1.8 million households by 2025, as rising house prices continue to make home ownership increasingly unaffordable for younger generations.  So, if we applied this rise to Staines, we will in fact need an additional 711 private rental properties over the next eight years (or 89 a year) … meaning the number of private rented properties in Staines is projected to rise to an eye watering 2,369 households.

STAINES / EGHAM DEAL OF THE WEEK - 9 3 17

STAINES / EGHAM  DEAL OF THE WEEK 

9th  march 2017 

A three bed for £369,950!  Two bed flats in Staines are on the market for £320,000 these days, so this three bed semi has got to be worth a look.  A stone's throw from the popular and oversubscribed Hythe Primary School, I can't imagine this property will be around for long.  On the market with Romans.  For more details click the link below:     

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47209731.html 

STAINES /  ASHFORD  DEAL OF THE WEEK -

21st February 2017 

A three bed under £300,000!  A very rare beast indeed.  It might need some work but on with Gregory Brown at £289,950 it has masses of potential.  Take a look, this one certainly won't stay on the market long.  

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46232166.html

STAINES' DEAL OF THE WEEK - 7th February 2017

This very recently refurbished two double bedroom flat in Florida Court is literally a stone's throw from the station, and a child's stones' throw at that!  Set in a charming 1920's building which has always caught my attention, this property would make an ideal Buy To Let investment or first purchase.  Apparently the neighbours are lovely and there is a real sense of community, with the whole block curve around a central area: 

On at £320,000 with the vendor looking to move quickly, this property won't hang around for long.  

This one's on with my agency, Martin & co, Staines, so give Owen in our office a call to view (01784 495660).  Full details can be seen at:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41413983.html 

STAINES /  ASHFORD  DEAL OF THE WEEK -

31st January 2017 

This three semi in Ashford may not be entirely to your taste, from an interior decor point of view,  but is on the market at an extremely competitive £320,000.  Definitely worth a look.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46232166.html