Staines' Savers batten down the hatches with Low Interest Rates set to continue into the 2020s

You might ask, what has the plight of the savers in Staines to do with the Staines Property Market … read on and all will be revealed! Every financial wizard is stating that with the decision of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee in early August to cut the Bank of England base rate to an all time low of 0.25 per cent, savers should prepare themselves for interest rates to stay low well into the early 2020’s.

... And this isn’t some made up story to capture the headlines of newspaper editors. The yield (posh word for interest rate or return) on 10-year Government bonds is currently 0.61 per cent. This indicates that the money markets believe that the Bank of England’s base rate will, on average over the next ten years, be below the 0.61% rate they are buying the 10 year bonds at (because they would loose money if the average was over 0.61%). UK Interest rates are going to be low for a long time.

For those who have saved throughout their working lives and are looking for ways to maximise their savings, putting money into property could prove advantageous. You see,  as a saver, I did a search of the internet and the best savings rate I could find was a 5 year fixed rate at 2.5% a year with Weatherbys Bank. Your £200,000 nest egg would earn you £5,000 a year – not much. However, on the other side of the fence, growth in Staines house prices and princely buy to let yields have made property investment in Staines an appealing option for many. According to my research, the...

Average Yield over the last five years for

Staines Buy to let property has been 5.7% a year

… and average Property Values in over the same period have risen by 30.4%.

Using these averages, the Staines landlord’s property would be worth £260,800 and he would also have received £57,000 in rent – making the total return £317,800. Meanwhile, whilst our Staines savers, using the average savings rates for the last 5 years, even if they had reinvested the interest,  would have turned their £200,000 into £221,184.

There are, of course, risks as well as benefits with buying to let. As my blog readers know, I tell it like it is and you need to be aware,  that  investing in buy to let means locking up capital in a property that may fall  as well as rise in value.  Another option for that nest egg would be stock market income based investment funds, which are paying around 5%, especially if you put your funds into a tax free Stocks and Shares ISA. Whilst you can only add £15,240 a year into an ISA, you would however have the ability to sell up quickly if you wanted / needed to ...         One last thought… The other side of the coin is that you cannot buy an unloved ‘stock market income based investment fund’ and set about renovating it and adding value yourself. The investment fund isn’t something that you can touch and feel, isn’t something tangible, isn’t something physical, isn’t something concrete, it isn’t bricks and mortar ... and that, of course, is why the love affair between the British and their property continues to endure – I for one cannot see that changing! If you are considering becoming a new buy to let landlord in Staines, do pop into our office on the High Street for a chat, we are always happy to offer free advice over a cup of tea or coffee.

924% Rise in Staines' Property Prices since 1981

Roll out the Lino statue, Staines High Street - Photograph by Jim Linwood

Roll the clock back 35 years to 1981:   Mrs. T was in power, we had a Royal Wedding, Britain won the Ashes and Bucks Fizz won Eurovision with ‘Making your Mind up’.   Haven’t things changed? As homeowners and property investors, don’t we all wish, with hindsight, we had bought up every house in Staines all those years ago?   Especially when you consider what has happened to Staines property values:

since 1981 Staines Property Values have risen by 942%

Not bad when you consider that inflation over the same period has been 271.9%, meaning in real terms (i.e. after inflation), property values in Staines are 670.1% higher.  Little wonder then, that today many people can’t afford to buy property and investors continue to be attracted by bricks and mortar and the prospect of becoming landlords. Yet the changes to the Staines Property market run much deeper than simply an increase in property values.

Looking at the Local Authority data for Spelthorne Borough Council in 1981, 20.2% of Staines people lived in a council house, whilst today its 12.4% ... a massive drop which can mostly be attributed to Margaret Thatcher allowing Council tenants the right to buy their Council House. The private rental sector since 1981 has also changed significantly.

Nationally it has almost doubled and whilst the proportion of properties privately rented in the Staines area (i.e. through a private landlord or a letting agency) may not have doubled, there has been a significant increase: from 9.6% to 12.7% of property.

And of those owning their own home – have those numbers changed too? In 1981, the proportion of people who lived in the Spelthorne Borough Council area who owned their own home was 70.1% … and today it’ s … 72.6%.

Homeownership in the 1980s and 1990s in Staines did rise, as I have discussed in previous articles in the ‘Staines Property Market Blog’, that was because nearly every council tenant was buying their council house. The net result is the younger generation of today has no choice but to rent privately as there are virtually no council houses available. And this is why the buy to let market in Staines is an investment sector that will continue to grow as councils aren’t building council houses in their thousands each year (as they were in the 1950s, 60s and 70s). Like Bucks Fizz said in their song, it’s time to make your mind up. The advice I give to my landlords, and also to you my blog reading friends is this; these changes will make some landlords panic, meaning competition for decent Staines buy to let bargains will reduce as fear of change kicks in and amateur investors flee the market. These opportunities will provide a more stable platform for knowledgeable and wise Staines buy to let landlords to thrive in. If you want to have a chat about the Staines Property Market, feel free to pop into our office for a chat, we are always happy to offer a cup of coffee.

Ashford - Buy To Let Deal of the Week - 15 11 2016

The perfect Buy to Let, a larger than average two bed at a competitive price.

Close to Ashford High Street and the Station reinforcing its value as a Buy To Let.  Also needs no updating - buy and off you go, ready to rent.

New to the market yesterday with SJ Smith in Ashford at just £250,000,  this property wont be around for long.   

Check it out at: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-58629887.html 

What will the 0.25% Interest Rate do the the Staines Property Market?

Recently I had an interesting chat with a landlord from Chertsey Lane who owns a few properties in the town. He popped his head in to my office as his wife was shopping in the area. We had never spoken before (because he uses another agent in the town to manage his Staines properties) yet after reading my blog on the Staines Property Market for awhile, he wanted to know my thoughts on how the recent interest rate cut would affect the Staines property market and I would also like to share these thoughts with you…… Well it’s been quite a few weeks now since interest rates were cut to 0.25% by the Bank of England as the Bank believed Brexit could lead to a materially lower path of growth for the UK, especially for the manufacturing and construction industries. You see for the country as a whole, the manufacturing and construction industries are still performing well below the pre credit crunch levels of 2008/09, so in the Bank's view, the economy remains susceptible to an economic shock. This holds true in Staines too, with a number of local success stories in manufacturing and construction, a considerable number of people are employed in these sectors. In Staines, of the 13,757 people who have a job, 708 are in the manufacturing industry and 991 in construction meaning  5.1% of Staines workers are employed in the Manufacturing sector and 7.2% are in Constructio The other sector of the economy the Bank is worried about, and an equally important one to the Staines economy, is the Financial Services industry. Financial Services in Staines employ 558 people, making up 4.1% of the Staines working population. Together with a cut in interest rates, the Bank also announced an increase in the quantity of money via a new programme of Quantitative Easing to buy £70bn of Government and Private bonds. Now that won’t do much to the Staines property market directly, but another measure also included in the recent announcement was £100bn of new funding to banks. This extra £100bn will help the High St banks pass on the base rate cut to people and businesses, meaning the banks will have lots of cheap money to lend for mortgages .. which will have a significant effect on the Staines property market (as that £100bn would be enough to buy half a million homes in the UK). It will take until early in the New Year to establish the real direction of the Staines property market and the effects of Brexit on the economy as a whole, the subsequent recent interest rate cuts and the availability of cheap mortgages. However, something bigger than Brexit and interest rates is the inherent under supply of housing (something I have spoken about many times in my blog and its specific effect on Staines). The severe under supply means that Staines property prices are likely to increase further in the medium to long term, even if there is a dip in the short term. This only confirms what every homeowner and landlord has known for decades .. investing in property is a long term project and as an investment vehicle, it will continue to outstrip other forms of investment due to the high demand for a roof over people’s heads and the low supply of new properties being built.

Nearly 80% of Staines Properties have 3 or more Bedrooms

The orthodox way of classifying property in the UK is to look at the number of bedrooms rather than its size in square metres. Both homeowners and tenants are happy to pay for more space. It’s obvious, the more bedrooms a house or apartment has, the bigger it is likely to be. The reason being not only the actual additional bedroom space, but the properties with more bedrooms tend to have larger / more reception (living) rooms. However, if you think about it, this isn’t so astonishing given that properties with more bedrooms would typically accommodate more people and therefore require larger reception rooms.

In today’s Staines property market, the Staines homeowners and Staines landlords I talk to are always asking me which attributes and features are likely to make their property comparatively more attractive and which ones may detract. Over time, buyers’ and tenants’ needs and desires have changed. In Staines, location is still the No. 1 factor affecting the value of property, and a property in the best neighbourhoods, say Laleham Village can command a price up to 50% higher than a similar house in an ‘average’ area. However, after location, the next characteristic that has a significant influence on the desirability, and thus price, of property is the number of bedrooms and the type (i.e. Detached/ Semi/Terraced/Flat).

In previous articles, I have analysed the Staines housing stock into bedrooms and type of property, but I have never cross-referenced type against bedrooms. These figures for the Spelthorne Borough Council area make fascinating reading. It shows that nearly 80% ,  78.9% to be precise,  of all properties in the area have 3 or more bedrooms: 

I was genuinely surprised at the low numbers of one and two bed properties, especially 2 bed semi- detached houses. The change in the numbers of properties on the market and the split in bedrooms on the market over the last 12 months also makes interesting reading:

·       12 months ago, 8 one bed properties were for sale in Staines, today 9, a rise of 13%

·       12 months ago, 27 two bed properties were for sale in Staines, today 32, a rise of 19%

·       12 months ago, 34 three bed properties were for sale in Staines, today 41, a rise of 21%

·       12 months ago, 18 four bed properties were for sale in Staines, today 24, a rise of 33%

·       12 months ago, 5 five + bed properties were for sale in Staines, today 11, a rise of 120%

Overall an increase of 28.5% in the numbers of properties on the market in Staines, which can only be good news for Staines first time buyers and Staines buy to let landlords looking for a bargain,  particularly as post Brexit  property prices have stopped rising at the silly rates they were 12 to 18 months ago.

 Written 27/10/16

New House Building in Staines slumps by 18.8% in the Last Year 

Even with Brexit and a potential reduction in immigration numbers, there is a severe shortage of new housing being built in the Staines area (and, of course, in the UK as a whole). And even if there are short term confidence trembles fuelled by newspapers hungry for bad news, the ever growing population of Staines and the imbalance of supply/demand and the possibility of even lower interest rates will continue to underpin the Staines property market.

When the Tories were elected in 2015, Mr. Cameron vowed to build 1,000,000 new homes by 2020. If we as a country were able to hit those levels of building, most academics felt the UK housing market would balance itself as the increased supply of property would give a chance for the younger generation to buy their own homes. However, the up-to-date building figures show that in the first three months of 2016 building starts were down. Nationally, there were 35,530 house building starts in the first quarter, a long way off the 50,000 a quarter required to hit those ambitious targets.

Looking closer to home, over the last 12 months, new building in the Spelthorne Borough Council area has slumped. In 2014/15, for every one thousand existing households in the area, an additional 6.85 homes were built. For 2015/16, that figure is now only 5.56 homes built per thousand existing households. Nationally, to meet that 1,000,000 new homes target, we need to be at 7.12 new homes per thousand.

To convert those numbers into real chimney pots, over the last 12 months, in the Spelthorne Borough Council area the following properties have been built:

• 200 by Private Builders (e.g. New Homes Builders)
• 30  by Housing Associations
• None by the Local Authority

So we are still only seeing 230 new homes being built per year in the Spelthorne Borough Council area, when we need at least 295 a year just to stand still!

It seems to me that Messrs Cameron and Osborne focused their attention too much on the demand side of the housing equation, using the Help to Buy scheme and low deposit mortgages to try to convert the ‘Generation Rent’(i.e. Staines ‘20 somethings’ who are set to rent for the rest of their lives) to ‘Generation Buy’. In my view, the new Housing Minster, Gavin Barwell, needs to concentrate the Government’s efforts on the supply side of the equation. There needs to be transformations to planning laws, massive scale releases of public land and more investment, as more inventive solutions are needed.


However, ultimately, responsibility has to rest on the shoulders of Theresa May. Whilst our new PM has many plates to spin, ignoring the housing crisis will come at great cost later on. What a legacy it would be if it was Mrs. May who finally got to grips with the enduring shortage of homes in this country. The PM has already referenced the ‘need to do far more to get more houses built’ and stop the decline of home ownership. However, she has also ruled out any changes to the green belt policy – something I will talk about in a future article. Hopefully these statistics will raise alarm bells and persuade both residents and Councillors in the Spelthorne Borough Council area that housing needs to be higher on its agenda.

3.25% drop in Surrey Property Transactions

In this post credit crunch world of interest and annuity rates so low a limbo dancer would smart, the growth of buy to let since 2009 has been phenomenal. So much so, there has been an evolution in the purchase of property in the UK from that of just buying the roof over one’s head to that of a buy to let investment where it is seen as a standalone financial asset to fund current and future (ie pensions) investment. So recently, a few days before the release of latest Land Registry data of property transactions, quite a few market commenters were anticipating a huge increase in the number of properties sold in January as the 1st of April 2016 stamp duty deadline got closer. However, looking at January's set of data released by The Land Registry, it seems there has been a drop in the number of completed property sales in the Surrey County Council area. Year on year, completed property sales in January fell by 3.25% to 1,311 compared with 1,355 in January 2015. Nationally, the number is similar, as the number of completed house sales fell by 5% in January 2016 compared with January 2015. Some might say this counters the reports that there was a rush by landlords to buy ‘buy to let’ property ahead of the 1st April 2016 deadline. So what happened to the stampede to buy that so many predicted? Looking at Staines specifically: in the TW18 postcode in January 2016, 37 properties changed hands, whilst 49 properties did so in January 2015. It’s even more interesting when you look at the average price paid: in January 2016, it was £397,175 yet in January 2015, the average price paid was £341,437.  Is the buy to let dream over for Staines landlords?  .. but as ever, the devil is in the detail. The 3% stamp duty surcharge for buy to let landlords was announced in the Autumn Statement on the 25th November 2015. Anyone who has bought a property knows from their offer being accepted to receiving the keys and monies paid is a long drawn out affair, taking on average 8 to 12 weeks. In addition the Land Registry only gets notified upon completion of the sale, so their data always lags behind reality. We also need to factor in that sales progression stands still for the last two weeks of December whilst we all enjoy Christmas. So if there was a rush in the last few days of November/early December in the Staines property market, we would possibly see the results in the February figures, but more probably in March’s (released in July). So why all the doom and gloom? Simple .. bad news sells newspapers and gets the headlines. Let’s be honest, the headline to this article is designed to be eye catching. However, when we look at both the bigger and smaller picture; nationally, property values dropped (month on month) by 0.5%; in the South East region they dropped 0.4%, whilst in Surrey they rose by 0.8%. The year on year figures tell a completely different story to that. Written July 2016

£7,400 Boost for Staines' First Time Buyers

There’s a whole legion of wannabe Staines first-time buyers keen to get on the property ladder and they now have a 3% price advantage over the previously quicker responding army of Staines landlords with cash at the ready. Since the start of April, buy to let landlords have had to pay an additional 3% stamp duty so whilst demand from some Staines buy to let landlords has dropped away, in the interim, it offers Staines first time buyers (FTB’s) a chance to fill the vacuum with less competition from cash rich landlords (over two thirds of BTL properties were purchased without a mortgage in the last 7 years) who could bid more and complete more quickly. Looking at the average value of an apartment in Staines currently standing at £249,800, that means if our Staines FTB went up against a Staines landlord, the landlord would have to pay an additional £7,494 in stamp duty. Early anecdotal evidence from fellow property professionals in the town is suggesting landlords are reducing their offers slightly on Staines properties to reflect the extra stamp duty.   Since 2011/12, the Staines property market has performed very well indeed. Over the last 12 months, £200,206,494 has been spent buying 558 Staines properties. Figures from the Land Registry have just been released and month on month in our council area property values are 0.8% higher, year on year 10.7% higher. Whilst still healthy, clearly these figures are nowhere near the heady days of 2000 (June to be exact), when Staines property prices rose by 28.5% in 12 months. So as property values in Staines (and the UK as whole) start to stabilise and come back to some kind of balance, we are beginning to see savvy landlords view the Staines property market in a different light. Even with the Spring Stamp Duty rush, gone are the days where you could make limitless money on anything that had a door, a few windows and roof. This stamp duty change has made more and more landlords take advice on what or not to buy and what to pay, meaning Staines landlords are being much more calculating with their Staines BTL purchases. We are also seeing a variance between relatively high sale price expectations on the part of vendors and a much softer reality when it comes to offers from purchasers as well as actual sale prices achieved, continue…. this in part reflects amplified uncertainty about the short term economic outlook (eg Brexit, Issues in the Far East etc). Now I know a lot of Staines landlords brought forward their BTL purchases to beat the stamp duty deadline. However, it is probable that hunger from Staines investors will return for the right Staines property later in the year, especially if it’s at the right price and offers a decent yield. However, in the meantime, Staines FTBs could and should, make hay whilst the sun shines, plug the gap and grab a bargain! Written July 2016

60.3% of Staines Voters voted to leave the EU - What now for the 9563 Staines Landlords and Homeowners?

It’s 5.50am and David Dimbleby has just announced the UK will be leaving the EU as the final votes are counted. As most of the polls suggested a Remain Vote, it came as a surprise to most people, including the City. The Pound has dropped 6% this morning after the City Whiz kids got their predictions wrong and MPs from the Remain camp are using words like “challenging times ahead”. 34,135 voted to Leave, 22, 747 voted to Remain,  77.9% turnout - great turnout, Well done,  Spelthorne! .. And now the votes have been cast.. What next for the 7905 Staines homeowners,  especially the 4023 of those Staines homeowners with a mortgage? During the campaign, the Chancellor suggested property prices would drop by 18%. Using Treasury estimates, their method of calculating this was tenuous at best; it focused on the abrupt and hasty increase in UK interest rates, which  would raise the cost of mortgages, and therefore potentially lower demand for property, causing a drop in property prices. … and I would say, yes .. that is likely, it will probably happen. Staines Property Values Staines property values may well  drop in the coming 12 to 18 months – but by 18%? - I am sorry I find that  overly pessimistic and believe that figure was overblown rhetoric to try to persuade homeowners and landlords to vote in a particular way. Since the last In / Out EU Referendum in June 1975, property values in Staines have risen by 2183.6% That isn’t a typo - and whilst property prices did drop nationally by 18.7% between the peak of 2007 and bottom of the market in 2009, when one compares property values today to that all-time high of 2007, (the period before the financial crisis of the Credit Crunch of 2008/9) .. they are still up 10.14%. Another Credit Crunch? Notwithstanding the Credit Crunch, the worst global economic outlook since the 1930s and the recession it brought us, a matter of a few years later, the Government were panicking in 2012/3/4 that the housing market was a runaway train. Now the same Credit Crunch doom-mongers and Sooth-Sayers that predicted soup kitchens in 2008/9 are predicting Brexit meltdown. Bad news sells newspapers. Stock markets may rise, stock markets may fall, yet the British public continued to buy property in 2009/10 and beyond. Aspiring first time buyers and buy to let landlords dusted themselves down, took a deep breath and carried on buying… because we Brits love our Bricks and Mortar.. and of course we will always need a roof over our head. However, as mentioned previously, if the value of the pound drops, in the past UK Interest Rates have risen to reverse that drop. But  whilst a cheaper pound will make your pint of Sangria a little more expensive on your Spanish holiday this year and make your brand new BMW pricier... it will make British exports cheaper! And of course, that is great for the economy. Interest Rates … And what of interest rates? Since 2009, interest rates have been at 0.5% and lots of people have become accustomed to those sorts of levels. So what if interest rates rise... end of the world? Interest rates in the 1986/88 property boom were on average 9.25%, in the 1990s they were on average around 6.5% and uber-boom years (when UK property values were rising by 20% a year for three or four straight years across the UK) .. 4.5%. Many of you reading this who are in their 50s and older will remember interest rates at 15%. But I suspect interest rates won’t rise that much anyway, as Mark Carney (Chief of the Bank Of England) knows, raising interest rates causes deflation – which is the last thing the British economy needs at the moment. In fact they have been printing money (aka Quantitative Easing) for the last few years (which causes inflation) to the tune of £375bn a month. A bit of inflation because the pound has slipped on the money markets (not too much mind you) might be a good thing? .. Because whilst property values might drop in the country, they will bounce back. It’s only a paper loss... because it only becomes real if you sell. And if you have to sell, again as most people move up market when they sell, whilst your property might have dropped by 5% or 10%, the one you want to buy would have dropped by the same 5% to 10%... and here is the best part – (and work your sums out) you would actually be better off because the more expensive property you would be purchasing would have come down in value (in actual pound notes) than the one you are selling. The Staines landlords of the 4,701 Staines buy to let properties have nothing to fear, nor do the 11,612 tenants living in their properties. Buy to let is a long term investment. I think there might even be some buy to let bargains in the coming months as some people, irrespective of evidence, panic. Even if we pull up the drawbridge at Dover and immigration stopped today, the British population will still increase at a rate that will exceed the current property building level. Britain is building 139,600 properties a year, but, according to the eminent ‘Barker Review of Housing Supply Report’, the country needs to build about 250,000 properties a year just to stand still. As the birth rate is increasing, the population is living longer and just under a quarter of all UK households now are occupied by a single person demand is only going up whilst supply is stifled. Greater demand than supply equals higher prices. That is definitely a fact. So, what will happen next? Well, there are many challenges ahead. The country has spoken and we are now in unchartered territory – but we have been through a couple of World Wars, an Oil Crisis, Black Monday, Black Wednesday, 15% interest rates and a Credit Crunch … and we survived! And the value of your Staines property? It might have a short term wobble… but in the long term -it’s safe as houses regardless. Written 23rd June 2016